Blog

WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture on Sept. 30, in its Small Grains 2021 Summary, estimated the 2021 US all-wheat crop at 1.646 billion bushels, down 51.041 million bushels from the most recent previous forecast made in the USDA’s August Crop Production report and down 182.279 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.828 billion bushels in 2020. As estimated, the 2021 crop was the smallest since 2002, when 1.606 billion bushels were harvested. The recent five-year (2016-20) average US wheat outturn was 1.939 billion bushels. The estimate for the 2021 crop fell below the average of pre-report trade estimates at 1.68 billion bushels.

The USDA, in comments accompanying its final wheat estimates of the year, said, “Area harvested for grain totaled 37.2 million acres, up 1% from the previous year. The US yield was estimated at 44.3 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from the previous year.”

The USDA lowered its estimates of both winter wheat and spring wheat other than durum production in the summary report.

The USDA estimated production of spring wheat other than durum at 331.14 million bushels, down 12.27 million bushels from the August outlook and down 256.365 million bushels, or 44%, from 587.505 million bushels in 2020. The 2021 crop was the smallest since 205.46 million bushels in 1988, another year of severe drought, and compared with the recent five-year average other-spring wheat outturn at 544 million bushels. The average of pre-report trade guesses was 327 million bushels.

In commentary accompanying the other-spring wheat summary, the USDA said, “Harvested area totaled 10.2 million acres, down 16% from 2020. The US yield was estimated at 32.6 bushels per acre, down 16 bushels from the record-high 48.6 bushels per acre in 2020.”

The USDA estimate for hard red spring wheat production in 2021 was 297.366 million bushels, down 8.055 million bushels from the August forecast and down 233.813 million bushels, or 44%, from 531.179 million bushels in 2020. It was the smallest crop since 181 million bushels in 1988 and compared with the recent five-year average hard red spring wheat outturn at 502 million bushels.

The USDA’s estimate for the 2021 winter wheat crop was 1.277 billion bushels, down 41.37 million bushels from the August estimate but up 105.968 million bushels, or 9%, from 1.171 billion bushels in 2020. The recent five-year average winter wheat outturn was 1.323 billion bushels. The average of pre-report trade estimates for 2021 winter wheat production was 1.321 billion bushels.

“The US yield, at 50.2 bushels per acre, was down 0.7 bushels from 2020,” the USDA said. “Area harvested for grain was estimated at 25.5 million acres, up 11% from the previous year. Record low acres were estimated in Utah in 2021. Record-high yields were estimated in Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas for 2021.”

The USDA estimated hard red winter wheat production at 749.489 million bushels, down 27.366 million bushels from August but up 90.512 million bushels, or 14%, from 658.977 million bushels in 2020. Trade analysts had expected a 2021 estimate at about 780 million bushels. The recent five-year average hard red winter wheat outturn was 800 million bushels.

The USDA’s estimate for soft red winter wheat production in 2021 was 360.689 million bushels, down 4.819 million bushels from the August estimate but up 94.45 million bushels, or 35%, from 266.239 million bushels in 2020. The recent five-year average soft red winter wheat production was 286 million bushels. The average of pre-report trade estimates for the soft red winter wheat crop was 364 million bushels.

The soft white winter wheat crop was estimated at 146.904 million bushels, down 13.337 million bushels from the August estimate and down 87.083 million bushels, or 37%, from 233.987 million bushels in 2020. The recent five-year average soft white winter wheat crop was 217 million bushels. The average of pre-report trade estimates for the 2021 crop was 176 million bushels.

The USDA estimated the 2021 durum outturn at 37.259 million bushels, up 2.599 million bushels from August but down 31.882 million bushels, or 46%, from 69.141 million bushels in 2020. The average trade guess for the durum crop was 34 million bushels. The recent five-year average durum production was 72 million bushels.

“Area harvested for grain totaled 1.53 million acres, down 8% from the previous year,” the USDA said. “The US yield was estimated at 24.3 bushels per acre, down 17.2 bushels from the 2020 yield.”

Source: World Grain