USDA forecasts records for world wheat production, use and trade

WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Sept. 10 said the global wheat outlook for 2021-22 was for increased supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher ending stocks compared with August.

The USDA forecast the 2021-22 world wheat supply at 1,072.84 million tonnes, up 7.1 million tonnes from the August projection, based on higher forecast beginning stocks in Canada, the European Union and India, and higher projected production for Australia, India and China.

The USDA forecast 2021-22 wheat beginning stocks at 292.56 million tonnes, up 3.73 million tonnes from the August outlook. The largest increase in estimated beginning stocks was attributed to Canada, up 1.88 million tonnes from the August estimate to 5.71 million tonnes.

World wheat production in 2021-22 was forecast at a record 780.28 million tonnes, up 3.37 million tonnes from August and up 4.45 million tonnes from 775.83 million tonnes in 2020-21, the current record world outturn. Production forecasts were raised for Australia (up 1.5 million tonnes, to 31.5 million), India (up 1.52 million tonnes, to a record 109.52 million), and China (up 0.9 million tonnes, to 136.9 million) but lowered for Canada (down 1 million tonnes, to 23 million), and Argentina (down 0.5 million tonnes, to 20 million).

The USDA projected world wheat consumption in 2021-22 at a record 789.63 million tonnes, up 2.96 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 8.76 million tonnes from 2020-21 at 780.87 million tonnes, the current record.

The USDA forecast 2021-22 world wheat exports at a record 199.74 million tonnes, up 1.51 million tonnes from the August outlook and up 0.15 million tonnes from 2020-21, the current record.

The USDA projected world wheat ending stocks in 2021-22 at 283.22 million tonnes, up 4.16 million tonnes from the August forecast but down 9.34 million tonnes, or 3%, from 292.56 million tonnes in 2020-21. The record for world wheat ending stocks was 297.61 million tonnes in 2019-20.

Source: World Grain