ABARES has predicted a challenging period for Australian grain producers in terms of pricing, flagging a 7pc decrease in world wheat prices over the 2012-13 period, in spite of a recent rally in international futures.
Chicago Board of Trade May 12 futures have risen by US30 cents a bushel over the past fortnight to US672c/bu, but ABARES has said high opening stocks and an expected big production year across the globe will see prices drop once again.
The average price of hard red winter wheat is expected to fall to $US275/t.
While the CBOT figures, which at current values translate to $US246, deal primarily with soft milling wheats, usually meaning a premium for better-quality Australian grain, ABARES is also forecasting a drop in the protein premium.
It is expected to be a similar story for coarse grains, with a 7pc fall in prices tipped, down to $US258/t.
These price forecasts reflect expected increases in world coarse grain supplies, although continuing dry conditions in the South American corn belt have other forecasters tipping a less dramatic rise in production.
Even oilseeds, which have been the darling of Australian growers over the past year, are expected to fall by the same 7pc, down to $US495/t, mainly because of an increase in production in US soybeans and a better European canola crop.
Source: World-Grain
MAR
2012
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