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WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — U.S. 2015 all wheat production was forecast at 2.148 billion bushels, up 6% from 2.026 billion bushels in 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its July 10 Crop Production report. The forecast was near the average trade expectation of 2.149 billion bushels.

The all wheat number included the first survey-based durum and other spring wheat forecasts for the season, as well as revised winter wheat estimates.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was forecast at 617 million bushels, up 4% from 595 million bushels in 2014. The total included hard red spring wheat production forecast at 573 million bushels, up 3% from 2014. Durum production was forecast at 75.5 million bushels, up 42% from 53 million bushels in 2014.

Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.455 billion bushels, down 3% from the USDA’s June estimate of 1.505 billion bushels, up 6% from 1.378 billion bushels in 2014 and below the trade average of 1.485 billion bushels. The winter wheat estimate included hard red production at 866 million bushels, down 2% from 887 million bushels in June, soft red at 393 million bushels, down 5% from 414 million bushels in June and white at 196 million bushels, down 4% from 204 million bushels in June.

In its July 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2016, at 842 million bushels, up 3% from 814 million bushels as the June projection and compared with 753 million bushels on June 1, 2015. The USDA 2016 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 855 million bushels.

Wheat-by-class carryover on June 1, 2016, was projected at 364 million bushels for hard red winter, compared with 294 million bushels on June 1, 2015; at 224 million bushels for hard red spring, compared with 213 million bushels; at 175 million bushels for soft red winter, compared with 153 million bushels; at 54 million bushels for white wheat, compared with 67 million bushels; and at 23 million bushels for durum, compared with 26 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2015-16 world wheat production at 721.96 million tonnes, up 410,000 tonnes from 721.55 million tonnes projected in June and compared with record high production of 725.92 million tonnes in 2014-15.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 1.599 billion bushels, down 10% from 1.771 billion bushels as the June forecast and compared with 1.779 billion bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2015. The USDA 2016 corn carryover number was above the trade average of 1.508 billion bushels. The USDA projected 2015 corn production at 13.53 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from its June projection based on harvested area of 81.1 million acres, down 600,000 acres from June, and average yield of 166.8 bushels an acre, unchanged from June.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 425 million bushels, down 11% from 475 million bushels as the June forecast and compared with 255 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2015. The USDA 2016 soybean carryover number was above the trade average of 378 million bushels. Soybean production in 2015 was projected at 3,885 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the June projection based on harvested area of 84.4 million acres, up 700,000 acres from June, and average yield of 46 bushels an acre, unchanged from June.

Source: World Grain