Blog

WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast the US carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, at 598 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from the November projection but down 247 million bushels, or 29%, from 845 million bushels in 2021. Nearby wheat futures closed 13¢ to 17¢ a bushel lower after the report.

The USDA lowered its forecast for the 2021-22 wheat supply by 5 million bushels, to 2.601 billion bushels, due to a continually slowing import pace. The USDA said imports for hard red spring were weaker than expected. However, the projected season-average farm price was expected to be $7.05 per bushel, making it the highest since 2012-13.

The forecast for domestic use was unchanged from November across all sectors at 1.163 billion bushels. Food use held steady at 962 million bushels, up 1 million bushels from last year’s estimate. Seed use held at 66 million bushels, up from 64 million bushels in 2020-21. Feed and residual use remained at 135 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from 2020-21’s estimate of 95 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2021-22 wheat exports at 840 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from the November forecast and down 152 million bushels, or 15%, from 992 million bushels in 2020-21. This trend continued downward toward the smallest US wheat outgo of 778 million bushels in 2015-16. Despite the decrease, the USDA anticipated that export prices would remain high, negatively impacting US export competitiveness.

World wheat supplies increased by 4.3 million tonnes, to 1.067.5 billion tonnes. World consumption of feed and residual use for 2021-22 was forecast up 1.9 million tonnes, to 789.4 million tonnes, with the increase mainly coming from Australia and Russia. Projected global trade was projected to reach a record of at least 205.5 million tonnes with higher exports from Australia, the European Union, India and Ukraine. Regardless of the increases, the USDA said production levels for Russia and Canada remained significantly below last year. Despite world ending stock projections increasing 2.4 million tonnes, to 278.2 million tonnes, global stocks remained at a five-year low.

This month’s 2021-22 US corn supply and use outlook were unchanged from November with carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1.493 billion bushels, up 257 million bushels, or 17%, from the 2021 estimate.

US soybean supply and use projections also were unchanged from November with carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, at 340 million bushels, up 84 million bushels, or 25%, from the 2021 estimate of 256 million bushels.

Source: World Grain