Archive for 2022

LONDON, ENGLAND – Global ending stocks of grains in 2023 will total 581 million tonnes, down 27 million tonnes, or 4.4%, from a revised 608 million tonnes in 2022, according to an initial forecast issued April 21 by the International Grains Council. If realized, the carryover would be the smallest since 553.7 million tonnes in 2015.

The Council called its preliminary forecast for 2022-23 “especially tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region.”

“Despite larger carry-in stocks, world grains supply (production ...

ISLE OF PALMS, SOUTH CAROLINA, US — Though futures markets already have priced in uncertainty tied to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, grain markets the world over will truly begin to feel the impact of supply deficits on the global wheat and corn balance sheets beginning in August and September.

How a global wheat supply deficit of 3 million tonnes plays out is largely dependent on how the rest of the world treats Russia financially, but for corn, the principal uncertainties lie ...

BAGHDAD, IRAQ — Drought continues to plague Iraq as the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture recently cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas of the country to 50% less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA forecasts 2022-23 wheat production at 3.25 million tonnes, well below the estimated 5.47 million tonnes in the 2021-22 crop year.

Though Iraq ...

MOSCOW, RUSSIA — About 900,000 tonnes of wheat has been loaded in Russian ports during the first 13 days of April, in line with March’s pace, according to Logistics OS, Bloomberg reported, despite economic sanctions and soaring shipping costs in the Black Sea region following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.

The resiliency of Russian grain exports has led analysts to downgrade their outlook for wheat exports from the European Union, one of Russia’s top competitors. The US Department of Agriculture ...

CAIRO, EGYPT — Egypt’s state grain buyer set on April 11 a limited tender for an unspecified amount of wheat from only European import origins, Reuters reported.

Wheat tenders from the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) are usually open for offers from all 16 import origins accredited by state buyers. Traders said it hadn’t issued a limited tender in years.

Reuters said the state grain buyer did not give a reason for the limited tender.

It is the GASC’s third wheat tender ...

ROME, ITALY – World food commodity prices rose significantly in March to reach their highest levels ever, as war in the Black Sea region spread shocks through markets for staple grains and vegetable oils, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said on April 12.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 13% from February when it already had reached its highest level since its inception in 1990. The index tracks monthly changes in ...

WASHINGTON, DC, US — War in Ukraine has had immediate impacts on the commodity market through higher prices and pronounced volatility, which will lead to secondary effects of inflation and worsening food insecurity, according to the report “War in the Region,” by the World Bank.

The report examines the humanitarian and economic impacts of the war, noting that it has threatened the stability of geopolitical relations. Economic output in Europe and Central Asia is forecast to contract 4.1% in 2022, making ...

RABAT, MOROCCO — Challenged by severe dry and hot weather in January and February, Morocco’s common wheat, durum wheat and barley production is being driven to record lows, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Marketing year 2022-23 wheat and barley total harvested area is forecast at 3.8 million hectares (9.39 million acres), about 15% below the five-year average. The USDA expects below-average yields to result in 2.25 ...

WASHINGTON, DC, US — The conflict in Ukraine between two of the world’s largest grain producers and exporters is the latest but certainly not the only factor that has led to soaring agricultural commodity prices, according to a report released on April 6 by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The paper, written by Paul Trupo, USDA international trade specialist, describes a perfect storm of inflationary factors that date back to late 2020 and include increased ...

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM — The European Commission in a report released on April 5 said it anticipates increased grain production and exports in the European Union (EU) in 2022.

“Proposed measures to increase the EU’s arable crops production will allow farmers to increase their sowing area for (corn), sunflowers and protein crops,” the Commission said. “As a result, the 2022 EU harvest may be a very good one for cereals and for oilseeds, provided normal weather conditions prevail.”

EU grain production is projected ...